The current criterion of biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid in primary biliary cholangitis is an alkaline phosphatase (ALP) level of ≤1.67 × the upper limit of normal (ULN) after 12 months of treatment. However, a proportion of patients who meet this parameter may still progress to liver decompensation. This study aimed to optimize the clinical management of primary biliary cholangitis by (1) establishing ALP normalization as a core treatment target, (2) identifying early intervention windows, and (3) developing risk stratification criteria.

This multicenter retrospective study included an internal cohort and an external validation cohort. We assessed the prognostic impact of ALP normalization with Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression. Sankey diagrams and segmented Poisson regression analysis mapped dynamic risk transitions to identify critical intervention windows. Predictive performance (sensitivity/specificity/positive predictive value/negative predictive value (NPV)) of Mayo, Paris II, and Toronto criteria for 12-month ALP normalization was compared.

Patients achieving ALP normalization showed significantly higher complication-free survival versus those with ALP 1.0–1.67 × ULN (89.8% vs. 79.8%; P = 0.016). Segmented Poisson regression identified significant change points at 3.73 and 5.5 months for high-to-medium and medium-to-low risk transitions, respectively. Failure to meet the Toronto criteria at month 3 predicted non-normalization with 95% NPV, whereas Paris II criteria at month 6 provided optimal specificity (73%) for identifying patients who failed to achieve ALP normalization.

ALP normalization significantly improves clinical outcomes. Two subgroups demonstrate low normalization probability and warrant early intervention: (1) patients with ALP ≥ 1.67 × ULN after 3 months and (2) those not meeting Paris II criteria by month 6.

Studies suggest that Yiguanjian (YGJ) may exert a therapeutic effect on liver fibrosis. However, the active components and molecular targets responsible for its action remain unclear. This study aimed to systematically evaluate the active ingredients and potential targets of YGJ in the treatment of liver fibrosis.

Active compounds and corresponding targets of YGJ were retrieved from the Traditional Chinese Medicine Systems Pharmacology Database and Analysis Platform (TCMSP) and the Encyclopedia of Traditional Chinese Medicine (ETCM) databases. Liver fibrosis-related datasets were obtained from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database and divided into training and validation sets. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) from the training set were subsequently analyzed using network pharmacology, molecular dynamics simulations, and immune infiltration analysis. Three machine learning models were employed to screen for core targets, followed by Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) and Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. The validation set was used to assess the expression levels and diagnostic potential of core targets.

A total of 2,887 liver fibrosis-related targets and 1,198 YGJ-related targets were identified. Three hundred and three putative targets for YGJ in the treatment of liver fibrosis were identified. Three machine learning methods further narrowed these down to five core targets. Immune infiltration analysis revealed an increase in effector B cells, resting CD4+ memory T cells, γδ T cells, and M1 macrophages during liver fibrosis progression. MR analysis showed that all five core targets (FABP4, MDM2, AKR1B1, PDGFRB, and NR1H4) had odds ratios greater than 1, indicating that they function as risk factors. Expression analyses in both the training and validation sets consistently validated the MR results, demonstrating strong diagnostic potential. GSEA revealed that the core targets were enriched in key signaling pathways, including Wnt, PPAR, and MAPK. Molecular docking and molecular dynamics simulations showed that the active compounds of YGJ exhibited strong binding affinity and stability with the core targets.

YGJ exerts its potential antifibrotic effects by downregulating or antagonizing the risk-associated targets (FABP4, MDM2, AKR1B1, PDGFRB, and NR1H4). These findings provide new insights into the potential of YGJ for treating liver fibrosis, while offering a scientific reference for the prevention and treatment of chronic liver diseases.